Europe was braced for a tough winter in anticipation of a Russian response to the sanctions imposed in the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia has been accused of using energy as a weapon and the delivery of oil and gas—its largest exports—was expected to be used to weaken the continent’s resolve.

In August, Germany said Moscow was driving up prices when state-owned firm Gazprom, after reducing flows of gas via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, then temporarily halted supplies of the fuel that the pipeline delivers to western Europe.

Three months earlier, the head of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine said Russia was using the pipeline between Russia and Germany to weaken Ukraine’s “security posture.”

But Putin’s hopes to bend a shivering Europe to his will may have been scuppered, in the short term at least, because of unseasonably warm weather, with average temperatures up to 20 degrees Celsius warmer than normal.

“Putin had bad luck this year, it’s really warm in Europe,” said energy and geopolitical analyst Thomas O’Donnell.

“His leverage is mainly in the short term, and he decided to use it before he loses it,” he told Newsweek. “Basically, he’s got to pray for bad weather.”

It’s not just the climate that has intervened. EU co-operation to reduce gas demand and develop new facilities for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) have also been essential, with imports of the fuel surging, especially from the U.S. and Qatar.

EU industry has reduced its consumption by more than a fifth without significantly cutting output, according to Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

Households have also reduced their gas consumption, aided by mild weather and incentivized by high costs and public campaigns asking for restraint.

“It means Mr. Putin’s plans to sow discord in the EU by driving up prices and causing potential shortages have failed,” Gloystein told Newsweek.

Halfway through the winter season, EU gas inventories are still at around 90 percent capacity in most member countries. Even if there is a cold snap before the end of the season, there should still be enough gas in storage to cope, he said.

“We now have a well-supplied EU gas market, even without Russian gas,” he told Newsweek. “That’s reflected in current gas prices, which are at their lowest level since the start of Russia’s invasion.”

In an assessment on November 11, Eurasia Group said that Europe’s improved gas outlook will make the task of preparing for next winter easier, when EU countries will need to refill gas inventories with little or no supply from Russia.

“Barring major unplanned disruptions and demand spikes this year, the risk of energy shortages in 2023 are now fairly low,” Gloystein said, although he expected gas prices to remain higher than than they would be under normal political conditions.

Russia typically supplies the EU with about 155 billion cubic meters of gas per year, or 40 percent of its annual import needs. In May, the Eurasia Group predicted that the longer the war went on, the more likely Russia would curb supplies to Europe, especially if sanctions were increased.

O’Donnell said that with minds focused on replacing Russian gas, he believed it would likely take until about 2026 or 2027 for there to be enough LNG on line “to satisfy the market and not have to depend on the pipeline gas.”

However, the historically high prices for gas compared to before the war still gives Putin leverage, especially as businesses and consumers feel the pinch.

“The thing is, next winter could be like winter 2019-2020 when it was really cold, and the wind didn’t blow and everybody ran down storage, including the Russians,“O’Donnell said. “Then he’d be in the driver’s seat for a year.”