NEWSWEEK: Retailers say holiday sales were much worse than expected this season. Why do you think people spent less than expected this year?

Thomas Hine: Buying things is almost always a mark of confidence. There’s a belief that if you’re spending money–especially if you’re charging it, so it’s money you don’t have–you have to believe you are going to have that money soon. After 9-11, which seemed devastating, there was actually a little upswing in optimism and we ended up having a decent Christmas. But this year there was much more uncertainty–the possibility of going to war, nuclear activity in North Korea, people getting laid off. Consumerism has been the bulwark of the economy in the face of all reality. Maybe the consumer is getting a little spooked right now. I know I certainly am.

That doesn’t bode well for retailers–some of them depend on the fourth quarter to be profitable. How have they become so dependent on these two months of sales for their bottom line?

If it were up to the retailers, they would never organize their shopping year like this. There is so much invested in inventory and temporary staffing and so much depending on one short period. It’s a series of nightmares.

Do you think U.S. retailers could convince consumers to shop as much during other times of the year as they do during the holidays?

No. In fact, one mystery to me is how they managed to lose Easter within my lifetime. It used to be the time to buy the new spring outfit, the Easter baskets. Now, back-to-school sales are No. 2 (after the holidays). That’s the only other period significant enough to mention anymore.

But retailers have tried to extend the original holiday season, pulling it out to Thanksgiving and warning shoppers: “Only X number of days till Christmas.” Initially, they tried to convince people to buy early as a mark of kindness to people who worked in stores, but that wasn’t very convincing. Now they pitch early shopping as a sign of effectiveness and efficiency, which appeals to women shoppers.

What about the male shoppers?

I’m kind of a typical man in that Christmas always takes me by surprise. In most families, Christmas shopping is delegated to women. Women buy a multiple of the presents men buy, but each gift is worth considerably less than each gift the men buy. Men usually buy bigger but fewer presents. Still, women always claim to be happier with outcome of Christmas buying than men are. They feel they did it well, made good choices and didn’t pay too much. It’s part of a game and obligation to spend but not to spend too much.

Why are women still in charge of doing most of the shopping?

All sorts of aspects of our society have outgrown that 1850s paradigm where the woman became the chief of consumption and the man became the breadwinner, but we still define that role for women as normal. Women are more accustomed to being expected to shop and to take it seriously. More women are now in the workforce or heading the household, but they are also making more purchasing decisions than in the past. Women are actually more important now than they were 30 years ago as consumers.

Do you think that will change?

I suspect it is starting to change already among teenagers, though there aren’t many statistics on it yet. One interesting study was about fashion consciousness. While male teenagers claimed much less fashion consciousness than their female counterparts–which may have been in part because it is not cool to claim consciousness–when surveyors asked about specific brands of sneakers and other products, even cosmetics, they found the guys were extremely well informed. There may just be a convergence of the sexes here, an indication of a change in the social norm that may have not yet manifested itself in adult society.

It seems everyone complains about the crowds, irritable salespeople and the amount of time it takes to do your holiday shopping in stores, and yet only a small–though growing–percentage shop online. Why is that?

Internet shopping is way up this year. There is nothing better than the Internet for finding a specific thing and getting the best price for it. But it is very difficult to browse the Internet in the way you do at stores, looking around at hundreds of choices and seeing something that appeals to you in a visceral way. I don’t like to buy things I can’t touch. The great mistakes people made with Internet initially was assuming that people would change their personalities to shop online. I think we have now learned that is not the case.

Do you think Internet sales will ever match in-store sales?

No, but they are obviously going to continue to increase. For example, nobody needs a computer store anymore. There are some things like that which are migrating entirely to Internet.

What do you see as the next major trend in shopping?

I don’t see any kind of major technology as important as the Internet coming along. But I think within the next few years, we will be watching a TV show and be able to purchase the dress that the woman playing the lead is wearing. Content and advertising are increasingly indistinguishable. That is where were going next. It’s not a place I want to go, but we’re already almost there.